Solar energyProject Australian Solar Energy Forecasting System - Phase 1
Report: Australian Solar Energy Forecasting System (PDF 5MB)
This project delivered the Australian Solar Energy Forecasting System (ASEFS), which uses basic techniques to cover all the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) required forecasting timeframes for managing the National Electricity Market (NEM), which range from five minutes to two years.
The 30-month, 7.6 million, project Australian Solar Energy Forecasting System (ASEFS) addressed the issue of solar power integration into the grid by means of a two-pronged approach:
- The development of an operational infrastructure component, also referred to as ASEFS, and to be installed at, and operated by, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO)
- The development of an advanced forecasting research program, via the production of world leading solar forecasting techniques and tools aimed at improving the forecasts produced by the operational system and at creating national capability in the area of solar irradiance and power forecasting.
Solar generating capacity in the National Energy Market (NEM) has been growing to an estimated installed capacity exceeding 4,000 MW, particularly with the proliferation of grid-connected roof-top PV, as well as the more recent large scale solar installation at Nyngam, Broken Hill and Royalla (with other MW-scale plants due to become operational in the near term). Solar forecasting is therefore essential to assist with the provision of accurate supply and demand forecast models necessary to increase commercial viability and ensure stability of the electricity grid.