This report outlines lessons that Meridian Energy Australia and the University of Melbourne have learnt regarding market modelling, LIDAR data analysis, and forecasting at the Mt. Millar wind farm in South Australia.
Lesson learnt No.1: Main effect of wind forecast accuracy is terms of mkt performance related to financial performance of generators. Worst forecast accuracy leads to greater curtailment of wind farms resulting lower revenues.
Objective: Investigate the potential system benefits of wind farms investing in short-term, self-forecasting solutions.
Details: Using the Melbourne Energy Institute’s electricity market model the potential financial and environmental benefits of improved wind forecasts to an electricity system were assessed. These assessments were made with respect to the effect of wind generation penetration and forecast error on: wholesale market prices and costs; generator rates of return; system greenhouse gas emissions; certain reliability and security-related metrics.