Solar energyProject Proa Analytics Solar Forecasts
This end of project report shares insights on ProaAnalytics’ project outcomes. In addition, the report provides a cost-benefit analysis to determine the most affordable and fit-for-purpose combination of forecasting technologies for solar PV farms.
This is the End of Project Report from the ARENA funded Innovative Optimally Combined Solar Forecasts Project. As part of this project, Proa has demonstrated the ability of the Proa Forecasting System (PFS) to provide self-forecasts at three solar farms in the main climate zones of the NEM:
- Tropical: Kidston Solar Project (QLD) in partnership with Genex Power,
- Sub-tropical: Oakey 1 Solar Farm (QLD) in partnership with Oakey 1 Asset Company,
- Temperate: Bannerton Solar Project (VIC) in partnership with Foresight Australia.
The PFS combines four individual solar forecasting techniques — live data techniques, geostationary satellite cloud motion vectoring (CMV) algorithms, skycam CMV and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models — to produce optimal forecasts at varying forecast horizons.
First, this Report shares relevant insights on the three main project outcomes:
- Outcome No. 1: A combination of forecasting technologies is required to provide the best forecasting performance by harnessing the advantages of each technology across a variety of weather patterns.
- Outcome No. 2: Skycams provide a significant benefit in reducing forecasting errors in high variability conditions, provided that the instruments are properly maintained and operated.
- Outcome No. 3: Self-forecasts present a solid Net Present Value (NPV), with benefits
significantly outweighing their cost, which allows for their wide implementation across solar and wind farms in the NEM.