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Report: Short-Term Forecasting Trial on the NEM Progress Report (April to October 2019) (PDF 1MB)
This report presents a summary of the insights and progress from initial reports submitted by the 11 participants of the Short-Term Forecasting (STF) trial that is taking place between March 2019 to mid 2021.
The Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) and the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) produced this report to summarise insights and progress from initial reports submitted by the 11 participants of the Short-Term Forecasting (STF) trial that is taking place between March 2019 to mid 2021.
This report focuses on insights into installing the forecasting equipment at wind and solar farms, registering as a self-forecasting provider to AEMO and passing the AEMO self-forecast assessment process for the period between April to October 2019.
Early insights from the participants’ reports include:
- learning by doing has been beneficial for participants to gain a better understanding of capital costs and timelines to deliver self-forecasting projects
- it is important for forecasting service providers to have a good working relationship and open communication with the wind or solar farm owner / operator and AEMO’s operational forecasting team
- AEMO’s troubleshooting of the self-forecasting process and the publication of procedures has assisted participants to submit and maintain their data
- ensuring forecasting technology at sites is compatible with remote operation can aid in reducing the need to conduct on site system operations and maintenance.
- wind forecasting is complex and forecasting algorithms have been revised to accommodate the complexities found in the trial
- it is important to design and maintain an effective project risk management plan to manage project risks including delays caused by contract negotiations, project partner changes, detailed design, equipment delivery, installation, commissioning, the AEMO accreditation process, and the weather.
The insights gained so far provide lessons for stakeholders across the industry including:
- owners and operators of wind and solar farms weighing up the business case for investing in both brown and greenfield renewable energy sites
- service providers including renewable energy developers, as well as engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) and operations and maintenance (O&M) organisations planning to incorporate self- forecasting equipment into the design of greenfield projects
- insights for forecasting and ancillary equipment suppliers to improve design and integration with other technologies
- academics seeking new knowledge gaps to research such as wind turbine wake impacts
- the AEMO Operational Forecasting team by highlighting the problem areas to troubleshoot.
Links to the 11 trial participants’ reports are located on page 10 of this report. Individual and summary lessons learnt reports will be published by ARENA, biannually, until the end of the trial in early to mid 2021.