Solar energyProject Solar Farm Solutions & the Australian Energy Sector
This Lessons Learnt Report outlines the key learnings Solcast has learnt in the six month period of April 2020 – September 2020 in regard to their involvement in the ARENA Short Term Forecasting trial.
Solcast has deployed short-term forecasting solutions to eight Australian solar farms in this ARENA funded Project. The Project demonstrated sky-imager technology can improve forecast accuracy over the short-term, but that an ensemble forecasting approach considering multiple inputs other than solely a sky-imager is the preferred solution. An FCAS simulation tool was developed that can reproduce AEMOs published MPF data. Solcast forecasts resulted in MPF reductions when compared with ASEFS forecasting. Solcast has demonstrated the effectiveness of self-forecasting in the NEM to reduce individual participant and market-wide FCAS costs.