System security and reliabilityProject Gridded Renewables Nowcasting Demonstration over South Australia
This report presents the lessons learnt in the Gridded Renewable Nowcasting Demonstration over South Australia project between July and September 2020.
In this ARENA funded project, Solcast aims to enhance existing weather forecast services by developing a proof of concept demonstration of a forecasting tool which will track and predict renewable output in real time. Solcast’s forecasting tool will aim to predict up to six hours ahead in five-minute increments, distributed into 1-2km grids across SA.
Solcast will track the real-time evolution of weather systems over SA and forecast the positions and characteristics of cloud cover, as well as improve predictions of wind-speeds at the wind turbine nacelles (above ground) enabling energy generation to be forecast with greater accuracy. The forecasts will also focus on six hour ahead forecasting to provide more accurate information for grid operation and enhanced management of generation, energy storage, and demand response.
Solcast will utilise a range of data sets and data streams, including historical surface meteorological measurement data and wind and solar farm weather data, to develop high quality forecasts. These forecasts will be shared via project partners, Weatherzone and Tesla Asia Pacific, to be assessed and used by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), the local distribution network operator (SA Power Networks), and generator asset operators.