- Lead Organisation
Solar and Storage Modelling Pty LtdLocation
South AustraliaARENA Program
30 March 2020
30 June 2022
- Project PartnersAEMO, The Weather Company, Energy Australia, SA Power Networks and TESLA Asia PacificThis renewables project was completed on 30 June 2022.
Solcast will develop a proof of concept demonstration of a forecasting tool which will track and predict renewable energy output over South Australia in real time.
Solcast developed a proof of concept demonstration of a forecasting tool which tracks and predicts renewable energy output over South Australia in real time. Forecasting renewable energy generator outputs is difficult due to their variable output being dictated by the availability of sun and wind.
Using high-resolution rapidly updating satellite data, and real-time ground observations, the forecasts produced in the ‘Nowcasting’ Project demonstrated lower error than existing forecast methodologies. The ‘Nowcasting’ methodology is anticipated to increase in value as higher penetrations of variable renewable energy enter the generation mix.
Report: Gridded Renewables Nowcasting Demonstration over SA
This report provides insights into the key lessons learnt throughout the project, which have been gained through various knowledge sharing activities, including media reporting, regular ARENA reporting, three energy industry conferences, and one meteorological industry conference.
The Gridded Renewables Nowcasting Demonstration project acknowledges that forecasting electricity generation from renewable energy resources on a day ahead or short-term basis is essential for the management of networks with high shares of renewable energy.
Existing technologies used to predict the ‘nowcasting’ (i.e. 5 minutes to 6 hours ahead) forecast horizon are based on numerical weather programs, which update two to four times per day.
These models leave gaps in the nowcast predictions, which can affect the security and reliability of electricity supply.
The Gridded Renewables Nowcasting Demonstration project will demonstrate nowcasting technology over South Australia, which will utilise a range of data sets and data streams, including historical surface meteorological measurement data and wind and solar farm weather data, to develop high quality forecasts. These forecasts will be shared via project partners, Weatherzone and TESLA Asia Pacific, to be assessed and used by AEMO, the local distribution network operator (SA Power Networks), and generator asset operators.
The project forecasting methodologies will be capable of accurately predicting renewable energy generation on the nowcasting horizon, including ramping events and periods of suppressed generation, with a gridded, rapidly-updating, spatially aware forecast model.
This initiative aims to provide the energy industry with enhanced situational awareness and more precise forecasts to support the management of the grid.
Solcast will author a public knowledge sharing report highlighting the outcomes of the project including the forecast performance, economic impact/value on the grid, and use cases for the technology.
It will take more than just renewable generation to build a strong, resilient energy system.