System security and reliabilityProject Gridded Renewables Nowcasting Demonstration over South Australia
Report: Gridded Renewables Nowcasting Demonstration over SA (PDF 975KB)
This report provides insights into the key lessons learnt throughout the project, which have been gained through various knowledge sharing activities, including media reporting, regular ARENA reporting, three energy industry conferences, and one meteorological industry conference.
The significant recent increase of variable renewable energy generation capacity in the National Electricity Market (NEM) has introduced challenges in predicting short-term aggregate supply and demand as the fuel mix has an increasing ‘weather as-fuel’ highly variable component. This project developed and deployed novel weather forecasting technologies aimed at increasing the accuracy of short-term 5-360 minutes ahead solar and wind generation forecasts in the state of South Australia. The forecast technologies capitalise on high-resolution and rapidly updating satellite data and real-time ground observations. Generation forecasts were deployed for all 25 semi- and non-scheduled solar and wind farms, state total behind the-meter rooftop PV, and state total demand.