Wind Forecasting for the NEM
- $493k Funded by ARENA
- $911k Total project cost
Summary
Fulcrum3D’s wind forecasting for the NEM project aims to reduce uncertainty in wind power generation by providing the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) with high accuracy, short-term wind power forecasts. The project will utilise a turbine agnostic wind forecasting model with distributed sensors.
A key driver for the project is to reduce causer pays that can be enacted when a semi-scheduled generator is unable to meet the generation target as dictated by the AEMO dispatch system.
The project will trial and demonstrate the technology at Pacific Hydro’s NEM connected Clements Gap, Crowlands and Taralga wind farms.
AEMO is now allowing semi-scheduled generators to submit their own five-minute forecasts. If these are more accurate than AEMO’s current forecasts then this should lower the wind farm causer pays penalties.
Short term forecasts are also expected to increase robustness of electricity supply and reduce costs by:
- Optimal dispatch of storage, demand response and other grid support technologies
- Spinning reserve management
- Potential provision of FCAS support
- Assisting with grid connection requirements
- Wind farm output increase via optimal yaw control.
Learn more
Report: Fulcrum3D Wind Forecasting For the NEM Final Report
This is the final report for Fulcrum 3D’s Wind Forecasting for the NEM project. Fulcrum3D installed four Sodar systems, two at Taralga and one each at Clements Gap and Crowlands.
Report: Fulcrum3D Wind Forecasting for the NEM Lessons Learnt 3
This Lessons Learnt Report outlines the key from the period between October 2019 – January 2021.
Media Release: $9 Million Funding to Enhance Short Term Forecasting of Wind and Solar Farms
Solar and wind farms will trial providing their own short-term generation forecasts, under a funding initiative by ARENA in partnership with AEMO.
Report: Fulcrum3D Wind Forecasting for the NEM Lessons Learnt 2
This Lessons Learnt Report outlines the key from the period between October 2019 – April 2020.
Report: Fulcrum3D Wind Forecasting for the NEM Lessons Learnt 1
This Lessons Learnt Report outlines the key from the period between April 2019 – October 2019.
Report: Short-Term Forecasting Trial on the NEM Progress
This report presents a summary of the insights and progress from initial reports submitted by the 11 participants of the Short-Term Forecasting (STF) trial that is taking place between March 2019 to mid 2021.
How the project works
The philosophy of the forecasting approach is focused on developing detailed turbine-agnostic, site-specific, real-time models using the vast amount of data available from:
- Sensors already installed and connected to wind farm SCADA systems and an on-site Fulcrum3D processing system
- New sensing equipment around wind farm perimeters (Sodars and/or masts).
The project will:
- Install equipment and establish data-feeds from a variety of turbine types
- Develop and demonstrate a whole of site site-specific wind farm power model that is agnostic to turbine make and model. This is essential for accurate power forecasting. This software model will take real-time, time-stamped data feeds from:
– Turbines (wind speed, wind direction, turbine state, wind farm total generation capacity
other power station equipment (inverters etc.)
– Demonstrate forecasting software to integrate with the power model and generate short term forecasts
– Install Sodar and/or masts around the wind farm where required and assess forecast improvement
– Assess and report on forecast accuracy and factors affecting accuracy
– Complete a cost-benefit analysis of these forecasts for the wind farm operator.
Area of innovation
Areas of innovation include the approach to wind formatting and the use of Fulcrum3D Sodars to detect changes in wind conditions – several kilometres upstream of the wind farm – in all weather conditions.
Benefit
The intended long-term outcomes of the project are to:
- Directly reduce the cost of renewable energy by reducing market charges for wind farm owners / operators
- Improve economics and reduce uncertainty for planned or proposed wind farms by reducing market charges and addressing grid connection barriers
- Increase skill, capacity and knowledge and further commercialisation of this Australian-developed wind forecasting system.
Additional impacts
Fulcrum3D is an Australian company working to enable higher and more efficient penetration of renewables into the global energy system. The company develops, manufactures and supports world class high-tech monitoring, data science and forecasting technology for the wind and solar energy industry.
Fulcrum3D’s R&D, software development, design, assembly and testing happens in Australia and it is proud to be creating quality, high-tech Australian jobs.
Australia is a global leader in renewables integration and so an ideal demonstration ground for integration technologies. The leadership opportunity for Australian technology companies in a global wind industry that is growing at 50 GW p/a is massive.
This project will demonstrate Fulcrum3D’s wind forecasting technology, further develop its applicability and assist in global awareness of Australian technology.
ARENAWIRE Blogs
Wind and solar forecasting trial looks into the future
A trial of forecasting technology has been launched to help predict the future output from wind and solar farms, which varies depending on the weather and time of day.
